Parallels between two eras of globalization

In his article "Sinking Globalization", Niall Ferguson makes several interesting points, points which made me think about things I haven't thought about before. He begins his article by saying that he will be drawing comparisons between the previous and the present eras of globalization. The first era, as he explains, lasted from 1870 through WWI when the sinking of the Lusitania ended it. WWI ruined the highpoints of this first era of globalization as protectionism caused countries to retreat away from the global marketplace. Ferguson explains that this end of globalization was "not unforseeable" as many countries strived for autarky. He then goes on to explain that this end of globalization ended up causing the stock market crashes of the Great Depression. Call me stupid, but I have never thought about the market crashes as having anything to do with globalization before - but it seems so obvious now.

Ferguson then makes a disturbing comment by claiming that today's global marketplace is "no more stable than the system that preceded World War I." This argument ends up serving as the basis for the rest of the article. As Ferguson explains the instability of the modern international monetary system, I learned more and more about how reliant the US is on other countries. I did not know before that US net overseas liabilities were so high.

This deficit makes globalization "susceptible to the international transmission of crises" - just like it was pre-1914. Ferguson's point is that we do not know when we will face the consequences of this susceptibility. We are not prepared for the worst, just as those in the first era weren't either.

We don't know what will happen, and the chance of impending crisis scares me. Whether it was his intent or not, Ferguson's article has had an effect on me, in that I am now nervous for the uncertainity of the future we are entering into.